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Deep Yellow (OTCQX:DYLLF) (ASX:DYL) is on the threshold of becoming the first greenfield start-up during this uranium cycle. Once the tenor of the current uranium market allows management to prudently make a positive Final Investment Decision (FID). The company is poised to rapidly execute on full-scale development with the construction of the processing plant and the initiation of mining operations.
The extensive prior development and operating experience of the Tumas Project team has been demonstrated by the company’s smooth and orderly process of completion of tasks that are required to move forward toward operations. Collectively, the team has over 500 years of uranium experience. By completing the early work and the detailed engineering work prior to a positive FID, Deep Yellow will be positioned to rapidly execute on full-scale development when uranium market conditions justify such a decision.
The spot price of U3O8 rallied 18.3% from $63.50 per lb. U3O8 in mid-March to $75.13 per lb. in August, while the long-term contract price has been stable around US$80.00 per/lb., hovering between US$80.00 and US$81.50 since July 2024. However, the first indications before and during the WNA Symposium portend an increase of RFPs being generated by utility buyers due to a realization that structural supply deficit is deepening as major producing mines are entering the end of their production cycles, along with declines in secondary supply.
Deep Yellow has two advanced uranium projects: Tumas located in Namibia and Mulga Rock in Western Australia. Tumas is the company’s flagship project with calcrete-hosted deposits that are very similar to the Langer Heinrich deposit, which the Deep Yellow team developed and operated between 2002 and 2015.
The Mulga Rock contains carbonaceous sediment-hosted deposits and is one of the largest undeveloped uranium in Australia with 105.3 Mlbs. U3O8 Eq resource. Mulga Rock also the only uranium play in Western Australia, having been granted a mining lease and development approval.
During fiscal 2025, a mini-pilot plant tested the beneficiation of bulk samples combined with leaching of the beneficiation concentrate, a uranium Resin-in-Pulp (RIP) extraction circuit, a base metal & critical mineral RIP extraction circuit, uranium elution and refining and critical minerals elution refining. The test work results validated and further optimized the processing methods to recover uranium, base metals and rare earth elements (REEs). The results have fundamentally transformed the Mulga Rock from a uranium-only project to a multi-metal operation with improved economics and lower operating costs by utilizing critical mineral revenue offsets.
Two major breakthroughs occurred during the development of an updated process design for Mulga Rock. First, a pathway was developed to commercially extract uranium from a lignite deposit. Second, an innovative process was developed that allows the use of in-pit saline processed water, which eliminates the need for freshwater in the process. Incorporating the advancements made during the mini-pilot plant test is expected to materially reduce operating costs (through the benefits from by-product production) and the environmental impact (by using in-pit saline processed water).
A revised Definitive Feasibility Study incorporating uranium, base metals and rare earth elements is expected to be completed in Q3 2026.
The company remains well funded with a group cash balance of AUD$219 million as of June 30, 2025.
Deep Yellow Ltd remains on track to become a low-cost, Tier I uranium producer, which management defines as a multi-project producer of uranium with the capacity to deliver 5-10 million lbs. of uranium annually.
TUMAS PROJECT in Namibia (100%)
In April 2025, the FID (Final Investment Decision) was deferred until the prevailing uranium market conditions prudently justify the construction of a greenfield uranium project like Tumas. Nonetheless, the Board approved a staged development until the price of uranium is sufficient to incentivize a greenfield project that will fully benefit from the upside potential of Tumas, which would be in the shareholders’ best interests.
Meanwhile, the pricing in the uranium markets have improved. The spot price has rallied 18.3% from $63.50 per lb. U3O8 in mid-March to $75.13 per lb. in August. The long-term contract price has been stable around US$80.00 per/lb., hovering between $80.00 and $81.50 since July 2024.
Deep Yellow has effectively used the last four months to de-risk the Tumas Project, materially advancing the Project to position the company to act decisively when uranium pricing prudently supports the go-ahead for this greenfield project. The work includes finalizing engineering plans, advancing process design, completing a construction access road, working on site preparation, awarding procurement packages, moving toward settling infrastructure contracts for water & power and completing other tasks for operational readiness. All these workstreams are on schedule as Deep Yellow progresses toward the ability to commence pre-production mining, process plant construction and operational ramp-up to full production.
Key project definition documents, namely the Process Flow Diagrams (PFD), Mass and Energy Balance (MEB), Process Design Criteria (PDC), Mechanical Equipment List (MEL), General Arrangement (GA) and plant layout are at “issued for design” status.
Completed Tasks
Early works for preparing plant site
Construction of access road completed.
The initial construction offices (with telephone communication system) have been constructed.
Borefield (which will supply groundwater for dust suppression) completed.
Mining requirements
Required pre-mining, grade control, 3,127-RC-hole (42,848 m) completed.
Progress on Advanced-Stage Tasks
Early works for preparing plant site
Power and water supply contracts are well-advanced with NamPower and NamWater, respectively, are expected to be settled by the end of September.
Progress on processing plant has reached 44% as of the end of July (3D model below)
Delivery pipelines to be installed by the end of December
Bulk earthworks at the process plant site to be completed by the end of December
Processing requirements
All 43 major procurement packages (representing 92% of direct capital costs) have been approved at a minimum for tender. Eight (8) packages have been awarded and another four (4) have been approved for award. Some of the other packages include long lead time mechanical items (such as mills, thickeners, crushers and large agitators) and fabrication packages (such as electrical & instrumentation installation and structural, mechanical, piping and platework aka SMPP).
Mining requirements
Negotiations with mining contractors are in final round of contract negotiations. Time target for the commencement of pre-production mining is late-2026
Financing
Working closely with Nedbank (Mandated Lead Arranger), management is progressing toward securing debt financing that will help fund the construction costs of the Tumas uranium mine once the FID is made to proceed. The final set of information packages have been submitted to the Independent Technical Experts in order to complete the due diligence report in order to secure lenders to fund the mine construction phase. Typically, debt issued for mine construction is secured by the assets and/or future cash flows of the project.
The Operational Readiness Plan (ORP) has progressed from a conceptual plan phase to detailed ORP stage in which policies, procedures, human resource considerations, mining engineering, supply chain logistics etc. for the transition to the commissioning and operational phases.
The extensive prior development and operating experience of the Tumas Project team has been demonstrated by the company’s smooth and orderly process of completion of tasks that are required to move forward toward operations. Collectively, the team has over 500 years of uranium experience. By completing the early work and the detailed engineering work prior to a positive FID, Deep Yellow will be positioned to rapidly execute on full-scale development when uranium market conditions justify such a decision.
MULGA ROCK PROJECT in Western Australia (100%)
Acquired through the acquisition of VIMY, the Mulga Rock Project, which is located in Western Australia, has two mineralized areas, Mulga Rock East (consisting of the Ambassador and Princess deposits) and Mulga Rock West (Emperor and Shogun deposits). Deep Yellow’s primary focus in Australia is on the major resource areas in Mulga Rock East.
Mulga Rock is the only uranium play in Western Australia having been granted a mining lease and development approval. The current MRE is 105.3 Mlbs. U3O8 Eq. There is significant upside in the Project by recovering base metals and rare earth elements (REEs) along with uranium.
Metallurgical Test Work (FY 2025)
During the first half of fiscal 2025, a mini-pilot plant tested the beneficiation of 1.4 tonnes of selected composite bulk samples (composed of fresh ore collected through a diamond core drilling program at the Ambassador deposit). The test work results validated and further optimized the processing methods to recover uranium, base metals and rare earth elements (REEs) at the Mulga Rock Project. The results have fundamentally transformed the Mulga Rock from a uranium-only project to a multi-metal operation with improved economics and lower operating costs by utilizing critical mineral revenue offsets.
Two major breakthroughs occurred during the development of an updated process design for Mulga Rock. First, a pathway was developed to commercially extract uranium from a lignite deposit. Second, an innovative process was developed that allows the use of in-pit saline processed water, which eliminates the need for freshwater (and a freshwater borefield) in the process. Incorporating the advancements made during the mini-pilot plant test is expected to materially reduce operating costs (through the benefits from by-product production) and the environmental impact (by using in-pit saline processed water).
Other than the breakthroughs mentioned above, the process flow sheet involves beneficiation, natural & oxidative acid leaching of the beneficiation concentrate, a uranium Resin-in-Pulp (RIP) extraction circuit, a base metal &critical mineral RIP extraction circuit, uranium elution and refining, critical minerals elution refining and then in-pit tailings disposal (i.e., backfilling abandoned open pit surface mines with tailings).
The results of the 3-month mini-pilot plant metallurgical study were released on July 10, 2025. Overall indicated recoveries from the mini-pilot plant test were uranium 85%, nickel 50%, cobalt 50%, copper 77%, zinc 89%, and Rare Earth Elements (REEs) specifically, neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium & terbium 50%.
The results are quite sufficient to develop an updated MRP process design flowsheet, which are being incorporated into a revised DFS (which includes uranium, base metals and REEs) that is currently underway. Process operating costs are expected to benefit greatly from the production cost credit due to the addition of critical minerals (base metals and rare earth elements) as byproducts. Also, there will be a complete revision of the Ore Reserve Estimate (ORE) with updates to the mining method, grade control, costs and scheduling.
The revised DFS for the Mulga Rock Project is anticipated to be completed in the third quarter of calendar 2026.
UPDATE ON THE URANIUM INDUSTRY
The spot price of U3O8 rallied 18.3% from $63.50 per lb. U3O8 in mid-March to $75.13 per lb. in August while the long-term contract price has been stable around US$80.00 per/lb., hovering between US$80.00 and US$81.50 since July 2024. However, through June 30th, volume has been low with only 25 Mlbs having been contracted in the long-term market, well below (about 70% below) the level of replacement, which reflected delays in procurement due indecision by price volatility. However, the first indications before and during the WNA Symposium portend an increase of RFPs being generated by utility buyers due to a realization that structural supply deficit is deepening as major producing mines are entering the end of their production cycles, along with declines in secondary supply.
The demand for uranium is poised to rise driven by expanding nuclear programs, such as reactor restarts, life extensions, new builds, the build-out of energy-hungry data centers and the emergence of SMR units. Without little macroeconomic and substitution risk, uranium remains a commodity with truly inelastic demand.
Policy/Political Shifts
In mid-June, the World Bank Group shifted it policy and rescinded its long-standing ban on financing nuclear energy projects, citing the global demand increase for electricity should include new nuclear capacity since “electricity is a fundamental human right and the foundation of development.” The only loan granted by the World Bank for new nuclear capacity was in 1959 for Italy’s first nuclear power plant. The World Bank also announced a new partnership with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to help extend the life of the existing reactors.
More than 120 nuclear energy and technology companies have signed an Industry Pledge to at least triple global nuclear energy capacity by 2050, and 31 countries have signed a pledge to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050. In mid-November 2024 at COP29 (the 29th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) in Baku, Azerbaijan, six additional countries (El Salvador, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Nigeria and Turkey) pledged to tripling global nuclear capacity by 2050. Now, there are 31 nations that have endorsed the goal.
The One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 was signed into law on July 4, 2025 by President Trump. Within the bill, it is proposed to increase US domestic nuclear energy capacity from the current capacity of 100 gigawatts to 400 gigawatts by 2050. In addition, the Bill allows for an increase of 5 GW electrical power output at existing nuclear plants, along with the construction of 10 new large nuclear reactors by 2030. If this goal comes to fruition, it would increase U.S. utility demand from roughly 50 Mlbs annually to almost 200 Mlbs, well above the total global consumption level of 176 Mlbs in 2024 and the total global production level of 156 Mlbs.
Then, on May 23, 2025, President Trump signed Executive Order 14300 (Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission), along with three others concerning nuclear energy. Among the key directives is an expedited licensing process through the imposition of an 18-month deadline for the review of construction permits and operating licenses for new reactors (which before would generally take 30-to-42 months) and a 12-month deadline for existing reactors.
In June 2025, Niger’s military government announced it is nationalizing the Somaïr uranium mine and transferred full control of the joint venture (63% owned by the French company Orano and the remainder held by the Nigerien state). Niger took operational control of Somaïr in December 2024. This political instability in the jurisdiction of Niger threatens the volumes from Somaïr, which might further tighten the production supply of uranium.
New Nuclear Plant Builds
Globally, there are 439 nuclear reactors in operation,70 under construction 144 planned and 298 proposed. Currently, China has 33 reactors under construction, India six (6) and Russia seven (7). In addition, China has 44 reactors planned, while Russia and India have 23 and 14, respectively.
China: 33 reactors are under construction, which would increase nuclear capacity to 33,355 MW.
India: With the country expected to be third largest global economy by 2027, the government has target increase nuclear capacity to at least 100 GW by 2047. Currently, six (6) reactors are under construction.
The Czech Republic: two (2) reactors are approved to break ground.
Indonesia: plans to commission its first nuclear power plant at Serpong, (near Jakarta) by 2034.
Japan: two (2) reactors are under construction.
Kazakhstan: In early August 2025, there was an inauguration ceremony to celebrate the beginning of construction of the country’s first nuclear power plant. There are plans for two (2) additional nuclear plants to be built using the Russian Rosatom for one and China’s National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) for the other.
Poland: three (3) reactors to be located in Pomerania are planned. Though still in the design finalization stage, construction is expected to begin in 2026, with commissioning of the first unit in 2033.
Romania plans to construct two (2) new reactors and have them operating by 2032.
The United Kingdom: Hinkley Point C1 (1,720MW) and Hinkley Point C2 (1,720MW) are under construction with grid connection expected in the 2029-2030 timeframe. Sizewell C (2 units in Suffolk, England) has received a positive final investment decision; site preparation is underway.
U.S.: Governor Kathy Hochul of New York directed the New York Power Authority to develop at least one new nuclear energy facility.
Nuclear Plant Restarts
U.S.: NextEra announced plans to restart the 600 MW Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa in the 2028- 2029 timeframe. This follows the planned restarts of the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan (announced in 2023 with a in October 2025) by Holtec and the Three Mile Island Unit 1 (TMI-1) in Pennsylvania by Constellation Energy. TMI-1 is expected to be operational in the mid-2027-2028 timeframe. A key driver of the restart is a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft in order to supply electrical power for its data centers.
Japan: 14 reactors have restarted post-Fukushima; 11 other reactors are currently in the process of restart approval.
Nuclear Plant Extensions
Romania’s only nuclear power plant, Cernavodă, will undergo a US$2.0 billion refurbishment program that will extend the operating life of plant’s Unit 1 by 30 years.
Emerging New Demand for Uranium (SMRs & Advanced Technology Applications)
A new concept of providing nuclear-generated electricity is Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) has significant implications for significant increases in demand for uranium. This new emerging industry will demand large amounts of clean, reliable, stable supplies of electrical power. SMRs are a next-generation form of nuclear power, which are smaller than traditional large nuclear reactors and will be utilized to provide steady, reliable power at remote, isolated areas as well as at large facilities in the mining, oil & gas, defense and heavy manufacturing industries. As these reactors are developed and deployed, the demand for uranium will further increase. Currently, there are 70 companies in 20 countries with over 75 SMR designs
In Canada in May 2025, Ontario Power Generation (OPG) received full and final approval to begin the construction of the first of four (4) planned GE Hitachi BWRX-300 MWe SMRs at the Darlington nuclear site on the shore of Lake Ontario. This appears to be the first commercial grid-scale SMR project in North America. The first unit is expected to go into service in late-2030.
Hyperscalers are large companies that provide cloud computing, networking and data storage services like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle and Meta (fka Facebook). These companies operate large AI-related data centers, which require immense amounts of electrical energy. All four companies have announced deals to secure power from traditional nuclear power plants or SMRs.
The use of AI technologies is still in its nascent stage and is expected to grow exponentially. Currently, the electricity is being sourced from the grid and the energy demand for AI-related data centers is only expected to increase. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in its 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report release in December 2024, data centers consumed about 4.4% of total domestic electric power (or 176 TWh) in 2023 and projected to consume between 6.7% to 12.0% (or 325-to-580 TWh) of total U.S. electricity by 2028. According to a forecast by BloombergNEF titled “New Energy Outlook 2025” that was published in April 2025, U.S. data centers are projected to consume 8.6% of total domestic electricity demand by 2035.
These new sectors of the economy (SMRs and data centers), have created growing and significant incremental demand for nuclear-generated electricity. There have been 16 U.S. nuclear power-related announcements, representing over 28 GW of new nuclear capacity, that are related to AI and digital infrastructure. Collectively, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle have announced deals for 10.7 GW of nuclear-generated electricity. In addition, Switch, a colocation provider which builds and leases AI, cloud and enterprise data centers to other businesses, announced a 12 GW partnership with OKLO Inc. in mid-December 2024; the non-binding Master Power Agreement projects a phased deployment through 2044.
Uranium Supply
Disruptions in supply are exacerbating the potential for increased tightening of supply longer term. In addition, the production from the existing large-scale mines of the world’s largest miners of uranium (Kazatomprom and Cameco) is projected to decline over the next decade. Between late-July and August 2025, Cameco informed the investment community that its production in 2025 would be 3.5 Mlbs below its former guidance and likewise Kazatomprom reduced its 2026 guidance by 8.0 Mlbs. (details below).
We expect minor supply shortage concerns to become noticeable over the next three to four years. Long-term contract pricing needs to improve in order to incentivize capital investments that will support the development of greenfield uranium mining projects. Cameco’s management has bluntly stated that they are unwilling to start greenfield projects at current contract prices of around US$80 per lb. Though brownfield and mothballed uranium mining operations will attempt to restart and small (5 Mlbs or less) offtake agreements have been signed, the supply-demand balance will most likely be determined by the ability of Kazatomprom and Cameco to ramp up their operations to full capacity in order meet demand. However, the managements of both companies are rational and have stated that at current uranium prices, they are not motivated to increase production. In the meantime, both companies are content to purchase uranium in the spot market or borrow material to meet their contractual obligations. The longer that contracting is delayed, it sets up a scenario for price-insensitive demand to come to the market at the same time.
Cameco (TSX:CCO) (NYSE:CCJ), a second largest global producer of uranium, announced on August 28th in its press release for 2Q earnings report and production update that it anticipates McArthur River/Key Lake might produce only between 14 Mlbs. and 15 Mlbs. of U3O8 in 2025, roughly 20% below guidance of 18 Mlbs. Even though Cigar Lake has the potential to produce up to an additional 1.0 Mlbs. to offset the shortfall, Cameco may resort to buying more than expected in the spot market to meet its commitments. Cameco’s guidance is to purchase between 11 Mlbs. and 12 Mlbs. in 2025, yet only 2 Mlbs. was bought during the first six months of 2025.
In early September, Cameco signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) with six (6) suppliers in the U.K. to support nuclear new-build projects based on Westinghouse’s AP1000 and AP300 technologies.
Kazatomprom (LSE:KAP) is the world’s top producer of uranium, accounting for 21% of global production in 2024. By utilizing the In-Situ Recovery (ISR) mining method (ISR) in Kazakhstan, Kazatomprom is a low-cost producer, but is dependent on a supply of sulfuric acid (a key reagent used in ISR) and Subsoil Use Agreements (SUAs), which define the company’s uranium mining rights and are granted by the government of Kazakhstan. On August 22, 2025, Kazatomprom announced that SUA levels were reduced for 2026 and production would be affected by approximately 3 ktU (8 Mlbs) from 32.7 ktU (85 Mlbs) to 29.6 ktU (77 Mlbs).
Kazatomprom confirmed 2025 production guidance at 25,000–26,500tU (65.0-68.9 Mlbs), which was reduced from initial original guidance of 30,500–31,500 tU (79.3-81.9 Mlbs) provided a year ago in early August 2024; however, due to anticipated limited access to supplies of sulfuric acid and construction delays at new deposits being developed by the Budenovskoye JV, management re-evaluated its plans to ramp up 2025 production to 100% of its nominal output level set by SUAs and rolled back guidance to 25,000–26,500 tU on August 23, 2024.
With the normal decay of production at its currently producing ISR mines, Kazatomprom’s future production profile is dependent on the replenishment of uranium resources through exploration for and development of new resources.
Since implementing its 2018-2028 Development Strategy in 2017, Kazatomprom has removed over 48 ktU (125 Mlbs) of uranium from primary global production, which has contributed to the price recovery of uranium.
Sequestered Uranium Supply
The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (TSX:U.UN) (OTCQX:SRUUF) is the largest physical uranium fund in the world. It invests and plans to hold a substantial amount of U3O8 holdings, currently about 68.92 Mlbs which is worth approximately US$5.33 billion. These holdings of uranium are (for intents and purposes over the long/intermediate-term) sequestered, since “the manager intends for the Trust to be a long-term holder of physical Uranium and does not anticipate that the Trust will sell its Uranium.”
In mid-June 2025, the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust closed an upsized bought deal of 11,600,000 Units in a public offering priced at US$17.25 per Unit. Gross proceeds were approximately US$200 million, which the manager intends to purchase physical uranium as soon as practicable. Soon thereafter, in late August, the Trust purchased 50,000 lbs., which brought its total purchases in the third quarter to 1.2 Mlbs. U3O8.
Yellow Cake plc (LSE:YCA) (OTCQX:YLLXF) also sequesters U3O8 over the long/intermediate-term. As of July 8, 2025, Yellow Cake held 21.68 Mlbs. U3O8. Yellow Cake also has an agreement with Kazatomprom to purchase up to US$100 million of U3O8 from Kazatomprom annually through 2027.
World Nuclear Association
The 50th World Nuclear Symposium was held September 3-5, 2025, in London; this year’s theme was “Energize the Future Now.” Over 1,100 participants in the global nuclear industry, including industry leaders, policymakers, energy users (representatives from utilities), and financiers attended. Just prior to the event, the World Nuclear Association (WNA) released the 2025 edition of the World Nuclear Performance Report, which disclosed that nuclear reactors supplied 2,677 TWh of electricity in 2024, surpassing the previous record for 2,660 TWh in 2006. The most prominent growth was in Asia as nuclear electricity generation for the first time exceeded 800 TWh, primarily driven by three (3) new reactors coming online in China and Japanese reactors being reactivated. Globally, seven (7) new nuclear reactors started up.
Microsoft officially became a member of the WNA on September 3rd, reflecting the interest from technology companies that reliable, nuclear energy is a significant solution for electrical energy needs of the sector. It brought much attention to the fact that AI and data centers are now a new layer of demand for nuclear energy.
The World Nuclear Association released its biennial World Nuclear Fuel Report (290 pages) with supply-demand reference scenarios on the last day of the Symposium. Cameco and Kazatomprom lowering production guidance that total over 11 Mlbs. over the next 16 months cause a great deal of internal debate prior to the finalization of the reference scenarios. Also, there was not a firm consensus on the level of secondary supply.
Key takeaways from the reference scenario:
- Primary production from top producing uranium mines will be relatively stable through 2030, but then decay dramatically starting in 2031
- For supply and demand to remain balanced over the next two (2) years is highly dependent of the level of secondary supply and the successful restarting of idled mines.
- Starting in 2029, there will be a significant and growing supply deficit
- However, the report concludes that primary mine supply is adequate through 2030
- Global nuclear power capacity expected to increase 87% from 398 GW in June 2025 to 746 GW by 2040.
- Demand for uranium for nuclear reactors is expected to rise 117% from an estimated 68,920 tU in 2025 to be just over 150,000 tU in 2040
- Currently, it takes 10-20 years from resource discovery to initial production
VALUATION
Broadly speaking, the public uranium companies can be grouped into three segments: producers, development companies and exploration companies. Producers are actively mining and generating revenues. Exploration companies are prospecting and/or drilling to establish mineral resources. In between these two segments are the development companies that already have established resources and are advancing through the process to bring a mine in operation, generally from the point of initiating a Pre-Feasibility Study to the actual construction of a mine. The comparable companies to Deep Yellow fall into this category.
Further, the comparable companies have been narrowed through quantitative factors, particularly those with a market capitalization over $500 million and trading above $1.00 per share. This process captures a range of well-funded junior uranium development companies, which are listed in the table above. Currently, the P/B valuation of these comparable companies is depressed in the 2.36-to-6.00 range. With the expectation that Deep Yellow’s stock will attain a top decile P/B ratio of 6.0, our valuation price target is US$2.48.
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