By Jamie Hyland
A long-anticipated U.S. — Canada trade agreement covering steel, aluminum, and energy is reportedly ready for signature by Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit later this month. The accord could mark the most significant reset in North American trade relations since the 2020s era of tariff escalation and supply-chain disruptions.
Carney, who visited Washington in early October, said he had reached “a meeting of minds” with President Trump on the future of steel and aluminum trade. His comments signaled a thaw in tensions that began earlier this year when the U.S. imposed new tariffs on Canadian metals, prompting swift retaliation from Ottawa.
“President Trump and I know that there are areas where our nations can compete – and areas where we will be stronger together. We’re focused on building these new opportunities to create greater certainty, security, and prosperity for our workers and businesses.” — The Rt. Hon. Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada
Background: APEC’s Strategic Role
The APEC forum, founded in 1989, brings together 21 member economies across the Pacific Rim—including the U.S., Canada, China, Japan, and Australia—to promote trade liberalization, regional cooperation, and sustainable economic growth. This year’s summit has taken on new geopolitical weight as countries recalibrate industrial supply chains and resource security amid a global commodities super-cycle.
For the mining and energy sectors, APEC provides a critical venue for shaping rules on cross-border investment, environmental standards, and resource trade—all of which underpin long-term capital flows into North American resource projects.
Key Elements of the Deal
Reports indicate the agreement includes:
- Quotas on Canadian steel exports to the U.S. in exchange for reduced U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum.
- A framework for cross-border energy cooperation, potentially easing regulatory barriers on pipeline and grid infrastructure.
- Exclusion of critical minerals and autos, which remain under separate discussions.
While critical minerals are not covered, both governments have signaled that a complementary framework—possibly modeled on the 2024 U.S.–Australia Critical Minerals Partnership—could follow.
Implications for Investors
For investors and industry observers, the deal represents both opportunity and caution. A stable metals trade environment could strengthen demand visibility for Canadian smelters and raw-material suppliers, particularly in nickel, iron ore, and metallurgical coal. However, export quotas may limit upside for producers tied to the U.S. manufacturing sector.
The inclusion of energy signals a renewed North American focus on shared infrastructure, potentially benefiting natural gas, LNG, and cross-border transmission investments.
If signed at the APEC summit, the Carney-Trump accord could redefine the next phase of North American industrial strategy, aligning trade stability with energy cooperation—an outcome investors have awaited for years.
